Traffic and trepidation in the Persian Gulf could keep gasoline prices from dropping quickly

NEW YORK (AP) — After U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial vessels after almost seven weeks of war, oil prices plunged 10% and the stock market rallied Friday.

Motorists, hoping for relief at the pump, wondered how quickly gasoline prices might fall once oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf were moving again. A gallon of regular gasoline cost $4.08 on average in the U.S. Friday, which was 37% more than before U.S. and Israel attacked Iran but down a few cents from a week ago.

But when gas prices spike, they don’t typically drop as quickly as the cost of crude. Even if Iran keeps the waterway open in the face of a U.S. blockade of its vessels, it still could take months for fuel prices to return to levels resembling those enjoyed before the war began Feb. 28, energy experts said.

The slow speed at which oil tankers travel from ports to refineries, lingering security concerns, traffic in the strait and damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East are all playing a role in the elevated price of gasoline.

“The historical observation is that gasoline prices rise quickly but fall slowly, regardless of the particular causes of the increase,” said Mark Barteau, a professor in the department of chemical engineering at Texas A&M University.

“In this case, one has to take into account the time it takes for the steps that have to happen once tankers sail through the straits – for example, sailing time to refineries on other continents, time to ramp up refinery operations, and time to transport some refined products by tanker to the continent where they will be used,” Barteau said. “There is also tendency to hedge bets because of doubts about whether and how quickly that restoration might occur, and whether further disruptions are possible along the way.”

Nevertheless, some energy analysts were optimistic that gas prices would gradually decline.

Hope for lower gasoline prices

Gasoline prices were already falling slightly after last week’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, according to motor club federation AAA.

Following the Strait of Hormuz announcement, oil prices fell by $10 to $12 per barrel, which generally translates into a decrease of 25 or 30 cents per gallon of gas, said Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at Energy Policy Research Foundation, a non-partisan research institution focused on energy and economics.

“That doesn’t happen overnight, but within a week or two, we could be down 50 cents a gallon easily, if this holds,” Lynch said. “And part of it is, there’s a lot of tankers ready to go. And if they all come out, then that balances the market very quickly.”

In the wake of Friday's news, “every state will start seeing gas price decreases accelerate at a pace of probably 1 to 3 cents a gallon for every day or two,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a webcast. “And that could continue for at least a couple of weeks.”

DeHaan estimated that the national average for a gallon of regular gas could reach $3.45 to $3.65 by Memorial Day. But he acknowledged that returning to lower prices could take a while.

“It might take until later this year or early next year to really fully normalize and for some of these surcharges and impacts to reverse and disappear," De Haan said.

Traffic and trepidation

If an agreement to end the war is reached, it could take at least four months for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to go back to normal, said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University.

“Right now, you still have potential mines that have to be removed or detonated, you have over 150 tankers that have been anchored in and around the strait, which is causing a traffic jam, and we still have shipping rates that are still high because of lack of shipping capacity and war rate insurance,” he said.

The leaders of France and the U.K. welcomed word of the strait's reopening but said they would keep pushing for a way to permanently restore freedom of navigation for vessels that rely on the narrow passage off Iran's coast, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil typically travels.

Ship owners would have to be convinced to trust the Americans and Iranians, "and that seems like it’s a hard hill to climb,” Lynch, of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, said. “I certainly wouldn’t want to do it. I wouldn’t wanna be the first ship through or even the first five ships through, but somebody will do it. There’s a lot of money on the table and somebody’s going to grab it.”

If the Iranians are cooperating, the mines should not be a problem, because Iran has a sense of where the mines are, Lynch said.

"Now, that raises the issue, are the Iranians going to cooperate, or what do they want to cooperate?” he asked. “Are they going to demand a couple-million dollars a ship, as is talked about? Or is Trump going to say ‘that’s not acceptable,’ and then what’s the next step after that?”

If the strait remains open, and ships loaded with oil leave the Persian Gulf, it could take weeks for those heavy, slow-moving ships to reach their destinations.

“People think that once the strait opens, it’s fine. We’re done. It’ll be better really fast,” said Richard Joswick, global head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Energy. “If you open the strait today to get a ship and bring it around and take it to Europe and run a refinery, turn it into products, you’re talking 10 weeks of a lag time here. It will be two to three months before things can start to get back to normal after the straight re-opens.”

Damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East

Many oil production facilities were damaged in the Middle East, including refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and oil tanker terminals in the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Some repairs has been made, but damage remains.

In addition, some countries slowed down or halted production during the war, because without the ability to ship crude through the Strait of Hormuz, their ships and storage tanks filled up with stranded oil.

“It’s not a light switch. Everyone’s impatient and saying, ‘Go, go go,’” De Haan said. “But it will take time to get these flows of oil through the Middle East fired back up again.”

Once an oil well is turned off, the pressure within the well could change, and it can take time to restart the flow. But that might not be a problem in some Middle East oil fields, where production can be resumed quickly, Lynch said.

“The Saudis have done that a bunch of times. They ramp up by 2 or 3 million barrels a day, almost overnight, and there’s no problem with the wells that have been shut in for months and sometimes years,” Lynch said.

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Mae Anderson in New York contributed to this report.