Polls open in UK local elections seen as a verdict on Keir Starmer's leadership

LONDON (AP) — Polls have opened for midterm local and regional elections on Thursday that could deliver a heavy blow to embattled British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Starmer’s center-left Labour Party is bracing for big losses in voting that will choose about 5,000 local councilors and a handful of mayors across England, as well as semi-autonomous parliaments in Scotland and Wales.

Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. Some local authorities will count ballots overnight, but the bulk of the results are likely to be declared on Friday afternoon.

Local elections usually focus on issues like garbage collection, graffiti and potholes, but Starmer’s opponents have painted Thursday's vote as a referendum on the prime minister.

A rout could trigger moves by restive Labour lawmakers to oust a leader who led them to power less than two years ago. Even if Starmer survives for now, many analysts doubt he will lead the party into the next national election, which must be held by 2029.

Starmer’s popularity has plunged after repeated missteps since he became prime minister in July 2024. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living — tasks made harder by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has choked off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The prime minister has been further hurt by his disastrous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.

Labour is defending about 2,500 seats on English local councils, and party members are apprehensive it may lose many of them.

An election rout could trigger a snap leadership challenge or internal party pressure on Starmer to step down. He has already survived a crisis in February, when some Labour lawmakers, including the party’s leader in Scotland, urged him to quit over the Mandelson appointment.

Luke Tryl of pollster More in Common said the local elections are likely to see “the total collapse of the traditional two-party system” that was dominated for decades by the Labour and Conservative parties.

The big winner is expected to be hard-right party Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which is aiming for working-class, former Labour strongholds in England’s north and on London’s outer edges with its anti-establishment, anti-immigration message. The Green Party is also likely to gain hundreds of council seats in urban centers and university towns.

The main opposition Conservative Party is also expected to lose ground, with the centrist Liberal Democrats making some gains.

Starmer didn’t even mention the Conservatives in his final pre-election message, framing it as a choice between “progress and a better future” under Labour and “the anger and division offered up by Reform or empty promises from the Greens.”

Farage said on the eve of the election that a strong result for Reform would mean Starmer is “gone by the middle of summer.”

Reform also is eyeing breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales, though pro-independence nationalists the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru are likely to form governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff.

“Labour’s going to lose to Reform in some places, Greens in others, and here and there they’ll lose one or two seats to the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives as well,” said Tony Travers, a professor of government at the London School of Economics. “They’re fighting on four fronts in England — five in Wales and Scotland.”