A surge in violence followed Trump's cuts to USAID programs in Africa, a study finds

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision last year to abruptly dissolve the U.S. Agency for International Development — once a leading global aid donor — has been followed by a significant increase in violence in several African countries that the agency had supported, according to a study published on Thursday.

While the authors did not blame the USAID cuts for the increase in violence, they said the findings demonstrate that “large-scale, sudden aid cuts can destabilize fragile settings.” They, however, added that this is not evidence that more aid reduces conflict, instead it only shows “the effect of a sudden and unexpected disruption.”

For many years, USAID had provided crucial support to African countries wrecked by conflict and violence. By eliminating more than 90% of foreign aid contracts, the Trump administration effectively cut some $60 billion in funding.

The study by researchers from several universities in Europe and the United States said the abrupt withdrawal of USAID resources also interrupted contracts, staffing and aid procurement.

“The abrupt withdrawal of USAID led to a significant and sustained increase in conflict across Africa’s most USAID-dependent regions,” said the study, published in the Science journal.

The researchers said they examined whether the abrupt shutdown of USAID was followed by an increase in violence in regions of Africa that had historically received the most support and found that there was a correlation.

Africa is facing a threat from jihadis more than any other region in the world, conflict experts say. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, or ACLED, said Wednesday in a new report that jihadis in the region have been more involved in violence across the board and have been increasingly targeting civilians in the last four years.

USAID had long been the key funding partner for many African countries, helping to provide funding that helped governments and aid groups respond to multiple crises across different sectors.

In Nigeria for example, USAID support had helped victims of the militant Boko Haram group, which emerged in 2002. In Ethiopia's fragile Tigray region, officials relied heavily on U.S. funds as full-scale recovery efforts were yet to start after the war there killed hundreds of thousands.

And in northern Ivory Coast, a front line of the global fight against extremism, USAID had made significant financial commitments to counter the spread of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.

The findings from the study underscore the lasting impact of funding cuts, said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health, who was not among the authors of the study.

“The lasting problem with the shuttering of USAID is likely going to be that for much of its conflict prevention work, even if you put back all the money ... the experience is gone,” Raymond said.

Also, some USAID programs may have helped prevent spillover from conflict zones, said Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED.

“We now see increasing insurgency and spillover, so some of those programs may have supported these communities from insurgent threats, and now they are no longer active,” said Serwat.