NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA (WINK) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

The announcement came at a press conference in Lakeland on Thursday.

The National Weather Service predicts a 55% chance of a below-normal hurricane season, with only a 10% chance of an above-normal season and a 35% chance of a near-normal season.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

NOAA expects 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3-6 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1-3 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

An average season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

"With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said the agency is using AI-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data to improve forecasts.

"These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm's way," Jacobs said.

El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during hurricane season, which typically reduces storm activity.

However, Atlantic ocean temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average, which could support more storms.

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said uncertainty remains in how the season will unfold.

"That is why it's essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now," Graham said. "It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season," he added.

The outlook predicts overall seasonal activity but does not indicate where or when storms may hit land.

Watch the entire news conference live in the link above.