South Koreans vote in local elections seen as a gauge of support after President Lee's first year

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Koreans began voting Wednesday in mayoral and other local elections that are seen as a gauge of support for President Lee Jae Myung’s year-old liberal government.

Opinion surveys suggested Lee’s Democratic Party is certain to win more races than its main rival and conservative opposition People Power Party, as the PPP remains in disarray about 1 ½ years after then-conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law debacle.

Given its favorable political landscape, experts say the DP must score a landside victory and win some key races such as the mayoral vote in Seoul, the capital, so as to give Lee a clear boost.

“The conservatives' support base has been fractured and weakened in the wake of Yoon's impeachment, while the liberals' support base has grown stronger. Considering that, results of the elections will determine whether their dominance would prolong for a considerable time," said Jeong Han-Wool, director of the Korean People Research Institute.

Up for grabs in Wednesday’s polls are 16 mayoral and provincial gubernatorial posts, 12 of them held by the PPP. Fourteen new members of the 300-member National Assembly will also be chosen in by-elections.

The polls opened at 6 a.m. local time in about 14,300 stations across the country and are to close at 6 p.m. There are about 44.6 million eligible voters, according to the election commission.

Some earlier surveys indicated the DP would win up to 15 of the 16 posts. But newer surveys showed opposition or independent candidates were closing the gap with their DP competitors or even overtook them in five to seven races.

The DP entered the elections with a clear advantage because there are still strong negative public sentiments against Yoon’s martial law imposition in December 2024 that set off a huge political crisis. Also, the fact that the Lee government is just one year in office could mean more voters view it as a new government which still deserves their support, not their attempt to check its power, said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership.

Subsequently, Choi said that a resounding victory for the DP would be it winning at least 12 races in the elections. He said the party must also win the hotly contested Seoul mayoral race or the Lee government would suffer “a tremendous blow."

The Seoul race pits the DP's Chong Won-o, a former Seoul district head who rose politically after Lee praised his governance last October, against current mayor and political heavyweight Oh Se-hoon with the PPP.

A Seoul mayor “isn't a post that someone whose campaign solely relies on the president's coattails can afford," Oh told reporters Tuesday. “Our country would be safer when the rival forces keep each other in check than one side controlling every things. Please, leave Seoul, the last stronghold, in our hands.”

In a separate news conference Tuesday, Chong said he expected Seoul voters to deliver “a stern verdict” on Oh over what he called the mayor's incompetent and irresponsible governance style.

Thursday will mark one year in office for Lee, whose approval ratings hover over 60%. He won a snap-election arranged after the Constitutional Court ruled to throw Yoon out of office over his martial law enactment. In February, a Seoul district court convicted Yoon of rebellion and sentenced him to life in prison.

Yoon's ouster plunged the PPP into a massive infighting between reformists who joined the DP-led push to impeach Yoon and his loyalists who attempted to protect the embattled leader.

Among the candidates running for one of the 14 parliamentary by-elections is Han Dong-hoon, leader of the reformist faction who was eventually expelled from the PPP. Surveys show Han holding a slim lead over the DP's Ha Jung-woo, a former Lee adviser on AI, in a race in Busan, the country's second biggest city in the southeast.

Jeong, the institute director, said that a Han victory could help anti-Yoon reformists regroup and emerge as a new force among the struggling conservatives in South Korea. But Choi, another institute head, said Han's win could worsen a divide in the conservatives because Yoon loyalists would feel a sense of crisis and close ranks further.