Meteorologist: Katie Walls
•6/11/2026
NOAA has officially confirmed that El Niño conditions have arrived, and forecasters expect this event to strengthen significantly heading into winter 2026-27.
Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are running above average, the key signature of an El Niño event. The Niño-3.4 index, which scientists use as the primary El Niño thermometer, is currently at +0.7°C. Meanwhile, waters off the coast of South America are running even warmer at +2.1°C above normal.
Beneath the surface, a large pool of unusually warm water is sitting in the central and eastern Pacific, essentially acting as fuel for the event to keep growing. Wind patterns in the atmosphere have also shifted in ways that reinforce the warming. Westerly winds near the surface and easterly winds higher up, both classic El Niño signatures.
According to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (a collection of the leading climate forecast models), there's a 63% chance this becomes a "very strong" El Niño by winter, which would put it in the same category as the most powerful events on record going back to 1950. Think along the lines of the major 1997-98 and 2015-16 events.
During El Niño years, the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be less active. (For context, there were no storms to hit Florida in the 2015 hurricane season.) Stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic create more wind shear, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
That's welcome news, but don't let your guard down. Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Michael (2018) both formed during El Niño years, proving it only takes one storm to cause devastating impacts.
NOAA will issue its next update on July 9, 2026.
