Potential tropical development could bring flooding threat to Texas, Gulf Coast

THE WEATHER AUTHORITY, (WINK)—A developing weather system over northeastern Mexico is drawing close attention as it is expected to emerge into the northwestern Gulf later this week, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, and possible tropical development.

Currently, a trough of low pressure located inland over northeastern Mexico is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While significant development is not expected in the immediate future due to the system remaining over land, conditions may become more favorable once it moves offshore into the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday.

WINK News Meteorologist Lauren Kreidler says environmental conditions over the Gulf will only be marginally supportive of tropical cyclone development. However, there remains a possibility that the system could briefly organize into a short-lived tropical storm between Wednesday and Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the disturbance a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 50% chance over the next 7 days.

Regardless of whether a tropical storm develops, the primary concern for residents across southern and eastern Texas, as well as portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, will be the threat of excessive rainfall. 

Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected over the coming days, raising the risk of widespread and potentially life-threatening flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding.

In addition to heavy rainfall, coastal communities along parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast could experience gusty winds and episodes of coastal flooding. 

Forecast guidance keeps the disturbance well west of the Florida Peninsula.

The Weather Authority team will continue to closely monitor this system and the rest of the tropics as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season progresses.