Saturday outlook

Southwest Florida remains locked into a typical summer weather pattern with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, steamy temperatures, and tropical humidity.

While storms brought heavy rain and even a few severe thunderstorms to parts of the region Saturday evening, quieter conditions are expected overnight before another round of storms develops Sunday.

Saturday Evening Recap

Scattered thunderstorms developed across Southwest Florida Saturday afternoon and evening, with some storms becoming strong to severe near the Immokalee area. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds accompanied the strongest storms.

Storm activity will continue to diminish through the evening, with most locations becoming dry by around 9 p.m.

Sunday outlook

Sunday will feature a familiar summertime setup.

The morning begins mostly clear and mild, with temperatures starting in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s near the coast. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid-90s, running several degrees above the seasonal average of 91 degrees.

Despite temperatures in the 90s, humidity will push heat index values between 101 and 108 degrees, making it feel significantly hotter.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and become more common during the evening hours, especially closer to I-75.

Looking ahead

The WINK Weather Authority is tracking a plume of Saharan dust currently moving across the Atlantic. A small amount could reach our upper atmosphere early next week, helping to suppress rain chances to around 30% as we begin the workweek.

With fewer storms around, temperatures will climb even higher, approaching record levels on Monday and again Wednesday.

The Saharan dust also helps inhibit tropical development. As a result, the National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical development across the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Saharan dust could limit rain chances

A plume of Saharan dust may arrive early next week. These dust outbreaks often help suppress thunderstorm development and can reduce overall rain coverage.

If the dust arrives as expected, rain chances could dip closer to 30%, allowing temperatures to climb even higher. Some areas could approach record highs Monday through Wednesday as more sunshine reaches the ground.

You may also notice hazier skies and more vivid sunrises and sunsets.

Tropics: Watching GA/SC Coastline Next Week

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a potential area of low pressure expected to form off the southeastern United States early next week.

According to the latest outlook, the system has:

• 0% chance of development during the next 48 hours
• 20% chance of development during the next 7 days

 A low-pressure area is expected to form along a stalled frontal boundary offshore of the Southeast coast and drift slowly westward. Any development should be gradual.

At this time, the system poses no threat to Southwest Florida and would likely be little more than a rainmaker for portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast if it develops.

The WINK Weather Authority will continue monitoring the disturbance, but there are currently no tropical concerns for the Gulf of America or Southwest Florida.