Meteorologist: Katie Walls
•7/3/2026

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA (WINK) — In true July fashion, this holiday weekend will bring scattered downpours, but the exact timing just depends on where you are in SWFL.
Today and tomorrow will follow a similar storm pattern. Isolated showers and storms are possible closer to the coast, mainly along and west of I-75, through noon, so heads up if you're heading to a local beach in the morning hours. As westerly winds pick up midday, storm activity shifts farther inland. By evening, as those winds taper off, a few storms could drift back toward the coast before radar quiets down after sunset.
Today sits at 60%, meaning about 60% of Southwest Florida will see storms. That coverage climbs to 70% for July 4th and holds through Monday. With odds like that, chances are you'll see rain at some point over the holiday. Please stay weather aware. Remember: if you hear thunder, head indoors, or get to a vehicle if a building isn't nearby. Hearing thunder means you're close enough to be struck by lightning.
Lightning and heavy rain remain the top threats this weekend, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds can't be ruled out.
Storms should fizzle out around sunset, so radar looks mostly dry by 9 PM with only a 10% rain chance. The catch: humid, mostly cloudy skies mean firework smoke may linger longer than usual.