Meteorologist: Katie Walls, Lauren Kriedler
•7/3/2026

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA (WINK) — In true July fashion, this holiday weekend will bring scattered downpours, but the exact timing just depends on where you are in Southwest Florida.
It has been a soggy start to the holiday weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting communities across Southwest Florida. Rain and storms will continue through Friday afternoon. Thanks to the clouds and rainfall, temperatures have stayed cooler than they otherwise would, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.
As we head into the late afternoon and evening, expect the greatest storm coverage to shift east of Interstate 75 and into inland areas as westerly winds push activity inland. While a few showers and storms may linger along the coast, conditions will gradually become drier for Friday evening plans, although skies will remain mostly cloudy.
Rain chances increase to 70% on the Fourth of July and remain elevated through Monday. With rain likely, most locations can expect at least some showers or thunderstorms during the holiday weekend. Be sure to stay weather-aware. If you hear thunder, move indoors immediately or seek shelter inside a hard-topped vehicle if a sturdy building isn't available. If you can hear thunder, you're close enough to be struck by lightning.
Lightning and heavy rainfall will at times remain the primary threats this weekend, although an isolated, stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds cannot be ruled out.
The good news for holiday celebrations is that rain coverage is expected to decrease by Saturday evening, especially after sunset.
Most of the area should be dry by 9 p.m., with only a 10% chance of rain. The tradeoff is that humid air and mostly cloudy skies could cause fireworks smoke to linger longer than usual.
Have a happy, safe, and dry Fourth of July!