Andrew Shipotofsky
•7/3/2026
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, (WINK) — It has been a wet start to the Independence Day holiday weekend across Southwest Florida, with scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting many communities on Friday. The unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend as deep tropical moisture remains in place, keeping rain chances elevated through at least Monday.
Rain chances climb to 70% on Saturday, meaning most neighborhoods can expect at least a passing shower or thunderstorm at some point during the day. The highest coverage is expected during the afternoon hours as temperatures rise into the lower 90s and sea breeze boundaries develop.
Morning activities, including the Fort Myers Beach Fourth of July Parade, should see mainly dry conditions with only a few stray showers possible. Temperatures will quickly warm through the 80s, reaching the upper 80s by midday. Isolated storms may begin developing around noon, with scattered thunderstorms becoming more common through the afternoon.
While widespread washouts are not expected, outdoor plans should include a backup option and a way to receive weather alerts.
The encouraging news is that storm coverage is expected to decrease Saturday evening as activity shifts inland and gradually weakens after sunset.
A few lingering storms remain possible around 7 p.m., especially east of I-75, but conditions should improve as the evening progresses. By 9 p.m., most of Southwest Florida is expected to be dry with temperatures in the lower 80s. Conditions remain warm and humid through the remainder of the night.
One factor that could impact fireworks visibility is lingering smoke. Light winds and abundant humidity may allow smoke from fireworks displays to hang in the air longer than usual.
This forecast comes after a tragic lightning strike in the Gulf of America near Estero Island on Friday. One person was killed and three others were injured after lightning struck the water offshore of Fort Myers Beach.
Lightning remains the deadliest weather hazard in Florida. Remember: if you hear thunder, move indoors immediately. A substantial building is the safest location. If a building is unavailable, a hard-topped vehicle offers protection. Beaches, boats, and open water are especially dangerous when thunderstorms are nearby.
Boaters can expect southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots with seas running 1 to 2 feet. Conditions outside of thunderstorms will be generally favorable, but mariners should closely monitor radar and forecasts throughout the day.
Any thunderstorm that develops over the Gulf or inland waterways can quickly produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds, and reduced visibility from heavy rain.
Rain chances remain elevated Sunday and Monday, with scattered thunderstorms expected each afternoon. Coverage gradually decreases during the middle and latter portions of next week as temperatures begin trending hotter.
High temperatures will climb from the lower 90s this weekend into the mid-90s by next weekend, with rain chances dropping back to more typical summertime levels.
In the tropics, there is no development expected anywhere across the Atlantic Basin during the next seven days.
Have a safe and happy Fourth of July, and keep an eye on the radar before heading out to celebrate.
