Meteorologist: Oceana Hayden
•7/4/2026
Rain chances climb to 70% today, meaning most Southwest Florida neighborhoods can expect at least a passing shower or thunderstorm at some point. While rain will be possible throughout the day, the highest coverage is expected during the afternoon as temperatures climb into the lower 90s and sea breeze boundaries fuel scattered thunderstorms.
Unlike a typical summer day, a few showers and thunderstorms could develop along the coast as early as 10 to 11 a.m. A persistent southwesterly flow is pushing deeper tropical moisture into the region, allowing rain to develop earlier than usual. If you're heading to the beach or attending outdoor events this morning, keep an umbrella nearby and be prepared for a brief interruption.
Temperatures will warm quickly through the 80s, reaching the upper 80s by midday before topping out in the lower 90s this afternoon. As the day progresses, the greatest concentration of storms will shift inland, with only a few additional showers possible along the coast before sunset.
While widespread washouts are not expected, anyone with outdoor plans should have a backup option and a reliable way to receive weather alerts.
The good news is that thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease this evening as storms move inland and gradually weaken after sunset.
A few lingering storms remain possible around 7 p.m., especially east of I-75, but conditions should steadily improve through the evening. By 9 p.m., most of Southwest Florida is expected to be dry, with temperatures settling into the lower 80s. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the night.
One thing that could affect fireworks displays is lingering smoke. Light winds and high humidity may allow smoke to hang in the air longer than usual, reducing visibility during some celebrations.
Lightning remains Florida's deadliest weather hazard. If you hear thunder, head indoors immediately. A substantial building is the safest place to be. If one isn't available, seek shelter inside a hard-topped vehicle. Beaches, boats, and open water are especially dangerous whenever thunderstorms are nearby.
Boaters can expect southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots with seas of 1 to 2 feet. Outside of thunderstorms, boating conditions will be generally favorable.
However, any thunderstorm that develops over the Gulf or inland waterways can quickly produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds, locally higher waves, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. Anyone heading onto the water should closely monitor radar and forecast updates throughout the day.
Rain chances remain elevated Sunday and Monday, with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected both days. By the middle and latter part of next week, rain coverage will gradually decrease while temperatures trend hotter.
Highs will climb from the lower 90s this weekend into the mid-90s by next weekend as Southwest Florida returns to a more typical midsummer pattern.
The tropics remain quiet, with no tropical development expected anywhere across the Atlantic Basin during the next seven days.
Have a safe and happy Fourth of July! And don't forget to keep Doppler 3X right in your pocket with the WINK Weather App so you can stay ahead of any storms throughout the holiday.
