Meteorologist: Oceana Hayden
•7/4/2026
Rain chances remain high at 70% today, and many Southwest Florida coastal communities have already seen rounds of showers and thunderstorms this morning. That's thanks to a persistent southwesterly flow, which pushed deep tropical moisture inland and sparked storms much earlier than on a typical summer day.
The active weather isn't over just yet.
As temperatures climb into the lower 90s this afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop, with the greatest coverage shifting inland. While a few showers could linger near the coast later today, inland areas stand the best chance of seeing stronger afternoon storms.
The good news? We're not expecting an all-day washout. There will still be plenty of dry time between storms, but if you're spending the holiday outdoors, keep an eye on the radar and have a backup plan ready.
If you're heading out for fireworks tonight, the forecast is working in your favor.
Storm coverage should steadily decrease this evening as activity weakens after sunset. A few lingering storms remain possible around 7 p.m., mainly east of I-75, but by 9 p.m., most of Southwest Florida should be dry with temperatures settling into the lower 80s.
One thing to watch for is lingering smoke. Light winds and high humidity may keep smoke hanging over fireworks displays longer than usual, which could make parts of the show appear a bit hazy.
Even if a storm only lasts a few minutes, lightning can strike well away from the heaviest rain. If you hear thunder, head indoors immediately. A sturdy building is the safest place to be. If one isn't available, a hard-topped vehicle is your next best option. Beaches, boats, and open water are especially dangerous when thunderstorms are nearby.
The unsettled pattern sticks around through Sunday and Monday, with scattered afternoon and evening storms expected each day. By the middle of next week, rain chances gradually return to more typical summertime levels while temperatures heat up.
Afternoon highs will climb from the lower 90s this weekend into the mid-90s by next weekend.
