Watching the Gulf: NHC odds remain low, but models continue trending toward a named storm

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA (WINK) — We've already seen some action thrown our way as the area of interest marked by National Hurricane Center begins to take shape off our immediate shores. 

If you were woken up around 2 or 3 a.m. by thunder and lightning, you weren't alone. Overnight, a line of thunderstorms developed in response to the energy expected to move into the eastern Gulf. You could almost call this wave one.

The WINK Weather Authority has been monitoring a spot to watch for a potential tropical development a little too close to home. As of the 2 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, development chances have grown to 10% in the next two days and 30% through the week.

The next name on the list is Bertha, and it's looking a little more promising a tropical storm could be joining us as we move through the weekend together. 

A surface low has started to show up just west of our immediate viewing area. This is in response to last nights burst of thunderstorms that probably rattled a number of us with thunder and frequent lightning. Tropical systems often organize more efficiently overnight, unlike the afternoon storms that typically develop across Southwest Florida.

Because of this, we'll see rain chances relax as we go through mid-day today, before moisture and energy ramps up again tonight. Computer models are also beginning to sing in unison, suggesting a more organized low pressure center that could close off warranting the upgrade to at least a tropical depression. 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft have started planning a mission into the area of disturbed weather Sunday. Those plans could change if the system develops faster than expected. For the time being, our local forecast doesn't change too significantly. Wave heights will begin to grow thanks to winds flowing in from off the Gulf towards shore. Be aware of choppy seas if you have boating or beach plans this weekend. 

Rain will come and go as bands continue to develop and spiral around this feature. Right now it's still a tad early to determine precisely where it's likely to go.

The WINK Weather Authority will be tracking this around the clock now and through the next several days.