Meteorologist: Andrew Shipitofsky
•7/19/2026
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA (WINK) — Southwest Florida isn’t expecting a direct tropical impact, but Tropical Depression Two will continue influencing our weather through Monday with scattered showers, gusty winds, rough Gulf conditions, and a high risk of rip currents.
The depression remains nearly stationary over the eastern Gulf Sunday evening, about 190 miles south-southeast of Panama City. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to begin moving slowly northwest Monday before turning west along the northern Gulf Coast. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday.
While the center stays well away from Southwest Florida, its broad circulation will continue pulling tropical moisture across the region.
Expect another unsettled day with scattered showers and thunderstorms from the morning into the afternoon. Rain won’t be constant, but periods of heavier downpours are likely, especially from the I-75 corridor eastward, where tropical rain bands may become more organized.
Some storms could produce torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and wind gusts over 40 mph.
A steady south wind of 15 to 20 mph will make it feel breezy throughout the day, with occasional gusts between 30 and 35 mph along the coast.
High temperatures will stay below average for late July, topping out around 90 degrees thanks to the cloud cover and scattered rain.
Marine conditions remain the biggest local concern.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters, north of Englewood, through Monday as south winds of 15 to 20 knots build seas to 4 to 6 feet offshore. Conditions will remain rough for smaller boats, and inexperienced mariners should avoid heading into the Gulf until conditions improve.
Beach conditions will also stay dangerous. A High Rip Current Risk continues through Monday evening for Lee and Charlotte counties, along with Sarasota County farther north.
Tropical Depression Two continues to organize over the eastern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. Forecast guidance keeps the system moving toward the Florida Panhandle before tracking west along the northern Gulf Coast through the middle of the week.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for portions of the Florida Panhandle, where tropical storm conditions could arrive as early as late Monday. Additional watches and warnings likely will be issued farther west as the system progresses.
Forecast confidence in the exact intensity remains somewhat low. While gradual strengthening is expected, dry air, wind shear, and potential land interaction could limit how strong the system ultimately becomes.
As the tropical system pulls farther away Tuesday and Wednesday, drier air is expected to filter into Southwest Florida. Rain chances will begin to decrease through the middle of the week, and temperatures will rebound into the mid-90s.
By late week and next weekend, the forecast returns to a more typical summertime pattern with isolated afternoon thunderstorms, hotter afternoons, and improving boating conditions as seas gradually subside.
