Meteorologist: Andrew Shipotofsky
•8/22/2026
Southwest Florida is settling into a quieter Saturday evening after a day of mostly limited storm activity. While a few showers and storms developed inland, most coastal communities stayed dry.
The overall weather pattern will remain hot and humid through the weekend, but increasing moisture next week will bring a noticeable uptick in rain chances.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop inland this evening, with Inland Collier County seeing the best chance for a storm through sunset.
Most locations along the coast will remain dry, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will gradually fall through the 80s this evening after afternoon highs reached the low to mid-90s. Humidity will remain elevated, but slightly drier air has helped keep heat indices below the dangerous levels seen earlier this summer.
Sunday will start warm and humid, with overnight lows generally in the upper 70s and a few clouds or a stray shower possible.
As the sea breeze develops during the day, isolated thunderstorms will form and push inland. Rain chances will be around 30% for most of Southwest Florida, with the best opportunities for storms during the afternoon and early evening.
High temperatures will again reach the low to mid-90s, with a few locations potentially reaching 94 degrees.
The biggest change in the forecast comes next week as moisture gradually returns to Southwest Florida.
Monday will remain relatively dry, with isolated storms and a 30% rain chance. Rain chances increase to around 40% Tuesday, 50% Wednesday and 60% Thursday through Saturday.
That increasing moisture will support more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage later next week.
Despite the higher rain chances, temperatures will remain hot. Highs are expected to stay in the lower to middle 90s through next weekend, generally a few degrees above average. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 70s.
So while we are not expecting a major pattern change in temperatures, the wetter pattern developing next week should bring more frequent opportunities for rain and thunderstorms.
The Atlantic remains quiet from a U.S. threat standpoint, but the National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas of interest.
A disturbance in the central subtropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east of Bermuda, has a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next seven days. It is expected to move north and eventually interact with a frontal boundary.
A separate system in the northeastern Atlantic, west of Portugal, also has a 20% chance of development over the next two to seven days. It is expected to move toward Portugal and northwestern Spain, with development chances ending by early next week.
The system we're watching most closely is a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Monday.
The wave currently has virtually no chance of developing over the next couple of days, but the National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance of development over the next seven days. An area of low pressure could form as the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could eventually develop by the middle to latter portions of next week.
There is no immediate threat to Southwest Florida or the United States from this system. It is still thousands of miles away, and there is significant uncertainty in its eventual strength and track.
