Invest 96L forms in Atlantic, no threat to SWFL for now

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, (WINK) —As of this afternoon, formation chances have changed little. However, the National Hurricane Center has decided to move forward with designating our latest tropical wave as Invest 96L. This means it deserves a little more attention as it tries to develop into something more as it moves mostly west through the tropical Atlantic. We'll also get some assistance in tailoring your forecast and the details you need to know by way of receiving higher-resolution hurricane models. 

This is an interesting feature right out of the gate. Computer models and ensemble products have been highlighting the chance that a healthy tropical wave wanders off west Africa right around this time frame. The idea is that after a day or two over water, it may spin up into a tropical depression. That's when we're left with a few different variables in this latest tropical equation. 

Right now, on satellite, it has a decent look. In fact, this may be the healthiest wave to come offshore since this hurricane season started. It's also noticeably larger in size, which is key. During El Niño years, we tend to see far more wind shear and dry air being injected into our Atlantic from both the Caribbean and the northeast region of the basin. With it's larger size, this provides the wave with more available moisture. Because of this, it will try to wall itself off from the harsh dry air to its north and west as it tries to curl up and away from the belt of winds that initially helped draw it out over water. 

Looking out over the next few days, let's delve into what to expect. The wave itself has only just come off the African coast. That means, despite its forward motion around 15 mph, we have around 10-14 days to watch what happens. We may even know what the end game here is much sooner than that. A depression forming before week's end is doable. It is likely to encounter the same wind shear jetting out of the Caribbean Sea like our two previous invest areas saw previously. One key to the forecast is what happens along our coastline, as we build up a noticeably rainier pattern than we've seen here in the southeast in a little while. The second is our Atlantic high pressure, the Bermuda High if you've heard it called by name during our Tracks the Tropics segments or during seasons of old. 

Over the next five days, no worries at all here in Florida or anywhere else for that matter. We'll need to closely watch what happens between the Cabo Verde islands and it's approach towards the Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. We highly encourage you check back in with us here at the Weather Authority for all the latest information. Especially as the National Hurricane Center begins rolling out greater bits of data for us to digest and relay to the community.