SWFL.io - Local NewsMeteorologist: Andrew Shipotofsky
•8/23/2026
Southwest Florida is in for another hot start to the week, but a gradual increase in moisture will bring higher rain chances by the middle of the week.
After a few coastal showers Sunday morning, most of the afternoon activity shifted inland, with the greatest potential for storms east of I-75. A similar setup is expected Monday, with most communities staying dry but a few isolated storms possible, especially inland.
Temperatures will remain several degrees above average, with highs reaching the mid-90s. Monday's forecast calls for temperatures around 95 degrees in Fort Myers, with a few areas potentially running even warmer.
A light plume of Saharan dust will also linger over the region Monday, helping to limit shower and storm development.
The weather pattern begins to change Tuesday as additional moisture moves into Southwest Florida.
Rain chances increase from around 30% Monday to 40% Tuesday and 50% Wednesday. By Thursday, rain chances reach around 60% and remain elevated through next weekend.
That means the second half of the week should feature more widespread opportunities for showers and thunderstorms compared with the isolated activity expected Monday.
The higher rain chances will also help take some of the edge off the heat, but temperatures will remain above average. Highs are expected to stay generally in the low to mid-90s, with overnight lows mostly in the upper 70s.
The Atlantic is becoming more active, although there is no immediate tropical threat to Southwest Florida or the United States.
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three areas.
The area getting the most attention in the near term is 95L, a broad area of low pressure about 400 miles southeast of Bermuda.
Thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization, and additional development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 40% over the next seven days.
The system is expected to move generally northward to north-northeastward, remaining well northeast of Bermuda. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the next couple of days.
For Southwest Florida, there is no concern from this system.
Farther east, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa Monday.
The system has a near 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours, but the National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of development over the next seven days.
An area of low pressure could develop as the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally favorable, and a tropical depression could eventually form by the middle to latter part of the week.
It's important to emphasize that this system is still thousands of miles from the United States. There is significant uncertainty in its eventual strength and track, and it is far too early to draw conclusions about any potential U.S. impacts.
The third area is a non-tropical low several hundred miles west of Portugal. Development into a subtropical system is no longer expected, and the low should move toward Portugal and Spain.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a near 0% chance of development over the next seven days.